BBC Preview: Floyd leads a strong White Sox week

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 19 Fantasy Forecaster!

I'm amazingly pro-Cardinals this week.

It's hardly a bold call. The team plays six games at home, and as we all know, that suits the team that boasts a talented pitching staff. The games come against the Reds and Padres. The two teams combined have won 20 of 46 games since July 1. And, since the arrival of Matt Holliday on July 24, the Cardinals have averaged 4.8 runs per game with a .782 OPS. Before that, the team averaged 4.4 runs per game with a .734 OPS, so naturally, he was a substantial upgrade.

As you'll see below, of course I have Holliday in my active lineup in the weekly version of Baseball Challenge. What might surprise you is that while I have Albert Pujols active too, it wasn't as easy a decision as you might think.

Consider this: Pujols might be the game's leading point-getter, with more than 70 BBC points over any other hitter, but one of the things that hardly makes him an automatic is that he plays by far the deepest position. A whopping thirteen different first basemen have 350 or more BBC points for the season; no other position can claim even close to that. How many people believed that, entering 2009, Russell Branyan and Kendry Morales could each claim at least that many?

It's for that reason, despite first base obviously providing your best point potential position in the weekly game, that selectively exploiting your matchups is probably your better bet than locking in a guy like Pujols for the long haul.

After all, Pujols' price tag actually dropped this week -- by 0.3! And it's for that reason he cracked my weekly lineup. No promises beyond that, though.

Tristan's top weekly pitching staffs

1. Colorado Rockies (CHC-1, PIT-3, @FLA-3 -- two-start pitchers Jorge De La Rosa and Aaron Cook), 5.7 price tag: Since the day that Jim Tracy took over this team (May 29), the Rockies have been on a roll, winners of 41 of 62 games, and it's not just because their offense is pounding opponents into submission. No, the pitching staff has stepped up, with a 3.69 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in the Tracy era, and most importantly for our purposes, it has 917 BBC points during that span, a healthy 14.8 per contest. The Marlins are a team that strikes out a great deal, and each one is worth a point apiece in the BBC. The Pirates have a patchwork lineup after trading most of their veteran parts away. What soft matchups!

2. St. Louis Cardinals (CIN-3, SD-3 -- two-start pitcher Kyle Lohse), 6.1: There aren't many times I wouldn't be happy picking the Cardinals' staff facing an entire week's slate of home games. Since Busch Stadium's opening in 2006, the Cardinals have a 3.92 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in home games, and this year their numbers there are 3.32 and 1.24, both of those statistics are third-best in baseball. But these matchups go beyond the merely "favorable." The Reds sport the fourth-worst road OPS (.665) in the majors, and the Padres rank dead last overall in batting average (.236), OPS (.691) and runs per game (3.7).

3. Chicago White Sox (@SEA-3, @OAK-3 -- two-start pitchers Gavin Floyd and John Danks), 6.3: Floyd is my top two-start pitcher for the week, and with good reason. He's 7-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his past 14 starts, and gets soft matchups at two pitchers' parks in Seattle and Oakland. I'm a believer that the White Sox will skip the fifth-starter's spot thanks to Thursday's off day. If that happens, Danks gets two starts as well and the rotation throws its four best arms all week. This team recognizes its need to make up some ground in the American League Central race, and this is a good schedule with which to do it.

4. New York Yankees (TOR-3, @SEA-4 -- two-start pitchers Sergio Mitre and Joba Chamberlain), 6.2: There's precisely one thing that I don't like about the Yankees this week, and I'm sure you can guess what it is. Stumped? It's two starts from Mitre, who has failed to complete six innings in any of his four starts for the Yankees, allowing a .395 batting average and .938 OPS overall. All of the dependable Yankees starters are bunched up in those Wednesday, Thursday and Friday games, but the fact remains, this team keeps winning, and wins are worth five points apiece in the BBC. These are winnable games, so I'll live with the double-dip from Mitre and hope Chamberlain bounces back from a shaky start against Boston.

Tristan's daily matchup tips

Monday, Aug. 10 -- The aforementioned Floyd and the White Sox staff stands out, and that's in spite of it being a road start for a guy 4-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 11 road starts this season. Seattle's offense can't hit at home (28th-ranked, .725 OPS) and can't hit right-handers (25th-ranked, .712 OPS). … Last Wednesday, the Blue Jays were 8-for-20 as a team against Mitre, a pitcher who just can't get lefties out. Left-handed hitters Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay were 4-for-8 with one home run combined in that game.

Tuesday, Aug. 11 -- I'm on the Tommy Hanson bandwagon, and he did toss a gem the last time he faced the Nationals. He went seven innings of three-hit, one-run baseball at Washington on July 4. No, he didn't win on that day, but back at home I'm confident he and the Braves can. … This White Sox team sure clobbers lefties, with the game's second-best team OPS against that side (.827). Load up on Chicago hitters against Jason Vargas, especially lefty killing Gordon Beckham (1.100 OPS against that side), Paul Konerko (1.153) and Alexei Ramirez (.972).

Wednesday, Aug. 12 -- Chris Carpenter has been lights-out the two times he has faced the Reds this season, tossing a complete-game 3-1 victory at home on June 4 and seven innings of one-run, five-hit baseball to win at Cincinnati on July 5. It sure helps that his opponent is Homer Bailey. A "W" is looking pretty darned likely for the Cardinals. … Want a sleeper offense? Look to the Athletics versus Jason Berken, who inexplicably remains in Baltimore's rotation despite a 9.68 ERA in his past four starts. The A's pounded him for nine runs in 3 1/3 innings on June 6.

Thursday, Aug. 13 -- The Yankees present a risky pitching matchup in most of their home games, but on the road, especially in a ballpark like Safeco Field, they're a heck of a lot safer. CC Sabathia, in fact, is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in seven career starts at Safeco. … Even with Ian Kinsler on the disabled list, the Rangers boast plenty of right-handed firepower, like Marlon Byrd, Nelson Cruz, Andruw Jones and Michael Young, which bodes well for them in a matchup against Cleveland's Jeremy Sowers. He has allowed a .294 batting average, 31 of his 45 home runs and an .806 OPS to righties in his career.

Friday, Aug. 14 -- What a combination the Cardinals have here: a home game against the Padres with one of their two best starters, Adam Wainwright (Carpenter being the other), on the mound. Need I say more? … Jason Hammel is the one weak link in the Rockies' rotation, and Marlins hitters have combined to bat .433 (13-for-30) with two home runs against him in his career. New Marlins acquisition Nick Johnson is 2-for-2 against Hammel already this year.

Saturday, Aug. 15 -- I'll go with the Twins behind Scott Baker, as it's a home game. He has defeated the Indians in both of their meetings this season (1.29 ERA in those games) and Cleveland's offense is noticeably lighter following the recent trade of Victor Martinez. … It's another opportunity for some talented left-handed hitters to capitalize on a favorable matchup against Mitre. Ichiro Suzuki is a .361 hitter against righties this year, and Russell Branyan has a .929 OPS.

Sunday, Aug. 16 -- Matt Garza has been practically untouchable in games against the Blue Jays, with a 5-3 record, 1.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight career starts against them. Considering the Rays have won nearly 70 percent of their home games since the beginning of last season (68.9 to be exact), they're a fine choice to round out the week. … Jeremy Guthrie has struggled for much of the season, and the Angels are on quite the offensive tear of late, batting .316 with 36 homers and an .881 OPS in their past 23 games. Load up on L.A.

Tristan's BBC weekly-game lineup

Total Segment 2 points: 942.
Percentage: 80.8. Overall rank: 4,749th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 145th. Total points for 2009 season: 4,907.
Percentage: 97.2. Overall rank: 1,658th.
C -- Joe Mauer, Twins (KC-3, CLE-3), locked at 4.9 price tag, market price 5.0: He's a .378 hitter with a 1.123 OPS in his home games this season.
1B -- Pujols, Cardinals (CIN-3, SD-3), 5.1
2B -- Chase Utley, Phillies (@CHC-3, @ATL-3), 5.0: Though he won't have Citizens Bank Park helping him out this week, he'll face a full set of right-handed starting pitchers. Plus, Wrigley Field is a hitter-friendly environment.
3B -- Evan Longoria, Rays (@LAA-3, TOR-3), 5.0: Though his .214 batting average since the All-Star break might raise an eyebrow, he has 76 BBC points during that span, for a healthy 4.0 BBC points-per-game average.
SS -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (HOU-4, COL-3), locked at 4.9, 5.0 market: He's a .324 hitter with a .991 OPS in 54 home games this season. No concerns here about his playing in a pitching-friendly environment.
LF -- Holliday, Cardinals (CIN-3, SD-3), locked at 4.4, market 5.0: Through his first 12 games with the Cardinals, he's batting .447 with three homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.275 OPS. He's averaging 5.3 BBC points per game during that span.
CF -- Curtis Granderson, Tigers (@BOS-4, KC-3), locked at 4.8, market 4.9: The Tigers face nothing but right-handed starters this week, and he's a .291 hitter with 20 homers and a .935 OPS against righties this season.
RF -- Andre Ethier, Dodgers (@SF-3, @ARI-3), locked at 4.8, market 5.1: "Mr. Walk-Off" is a .370 hitter with five home runs, 16 RBIs and a 1.131 OPS in 21 games since the All-Star break.
DH -- Lind, Blue Jays (@NYY-3, @TB-3), 4.8: That Mitre matchup sure makes Lind look appealing this week, and he already has two home runs in his first three career games at new Yankee Stadium.
Pitching staff -- Rockies (CHC-1, PIT-3, @FLA-3), 5.7

Tristan's BBC daily-game stats

Total Segment 2 points: 1,221.
Percentage: 98.1. Overall rank: 1,142nd.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.